Bad Beat Jackpot Odds
Bad beat jackpot odds are a complex formula and not that easy to calculate the odds or probabilities to win a jackpot as it is to calculate a poker hand. All poker players’ play at the bad beat jackpot table for the chance to win the jackpot but not many players thinks about the true possibilities and odds of winning.
The most important factor to consider regarding the bad beat jackpot odds is the hand requirements. The higher requirements, the lower are the odds of hitting the jackpot. For example with a hand consisting of four of a kind 8’s you have a higher chance of winning the jackpot than a required hand of four of a kind jacks, since then the odds of hitting the bad beat jackpot is much lower.
A part from that the odds factor is tied to the hand requirement for qualify for the jackpot, there are other factors which comes into play as well. However, if more players playing the bad beat jackpot tables does not reduce your odds or change of getting the bad beat you want, in the same way that less players does not increase the odds of winning.
All the poker rooms we recommend on this site have fairly the same rules, hand requirements, odds and chance of winning the jackpot.
Bad beat jackpot probability
One other important factor to think of is that the probability of winning a bad beat jackpot never changes. The odds indicate the probability of hitting a bad beat jackpot at any given time. As the table show below, the probabilities of hitting the jackpot with four of a kind 8’s is one every 156,250 hands. The odds and probabilities does not change from hand to hand, it just shows the overall trend.
So every time a hand is dealt there is one chance of 156,250 times that a bad beat happens on your particular table when holding four of a kind of 8’s. Or putting it like this, when you flip a coin there is 50% chance of head 50% chance of tail. If flipped 1000 times and every time shows tails that does not mean there is a bigger chance of showing head next flip since the probability still is the same with 50% for either side.
The odds of winning the jackpot is truly very low and it is not probable that you will hit, however there are other things that increases your chance of taking part of the jackpot even though you are not the actual winner or loser of the bad beat. Some poker rooms like Absolute Poker and Ultimate bet offers a percentage of the jackpot to players playing the same table but even, more interesting, to players playing the same blind structure game as the table were the jackpot is hit. To read bad beat jackpot tips please visit tips.
Bad beat jackpot odds and probability table
Bad beat jackpot odds are the probability of a specific hands being meet to qualify for a bad beat jackpot.
The below table is based on a ten player game in were nobody ever folds. If you want to know how to calculate YOUR probability of winning, you should divide the probability in the table by 10, the result of random simulations of about 2.5 billion rounds.
| Bad Beat Probabilities | |
| Bad Beat Hand | Odds |
| Any four of a kind | 0.00001086 |
| Four 3's or higher | 0.00000996 |
| Four 4's or higher | 0.00000900 |
| Four 5's or higher | 0.00000805 |
| Four 6's or higher | 0.00000705 |
| Four 7's or higher | 0.00000613 |
| Four 8's or higher | 0.00000525 |
| Four 9's or higher | 0.00000439 |
| Four T's or higher | 0.00000359 |
| Four J's or higher | 0.00000287 |
| Four Q's or higher | 0.00000226 |
| Four K's or higher | 0.00000180 |
| Four A's or higher | 0.00000149 |
| Any straight flush | 0.00000122 |
| Straight flush 6 high or higher | 0.00000107 |
| Straight flush 7 high or higher | 0.00000091 |
| Straight flush 8 high or higher | 0.00000074 |
| Straight flush 9 high or higher | 0.00000059 |
| Straight flush T high or higher | 0.00000043 |
| Straight flush J high or higher | 0.00000027 |
| Straight flush Q high or higher | 0.00000012 |
